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Scenario & What-If Analysis

Know Your Margin in Every
Market Condition

QuotationDeveloper's manufacturing cost scenario modelling engine lets you test every risk before committing to a price — raw material volatility, volume shortfalls, FX movements, labour escalation, and annual price reduction requests — all with one click.

Model Your First Scenario Free

Why manufacturers lose margin on long-term programmes

A quote that looks profitable today can be a loss-maker in 18 months. These are the three most common reasons why — and how scenario modelling prevents them.

Steel prices moved — is your margin still safe?

A 12% rise in HR coil price can wipe 4–6% of your contribution margin on a stamped part. Without a scenario tool, you don't know until the next P&L review — by which time you've already quoted at the wrong price.

Volume shortfalls destroy tooling amortisation

Customer commits to 100,000 pcs/year. Actual volume comes in at 65,000. Your tooling amortisation per piece just jumped 54%. Scenario modelling lets you price for volume risk — before it happens.

Annual Price Reduction requests catch you unprepared

OEM customers demand 2–5% APR every year. Without a multi-year margin model, you don't know whether agreeing to this request will make you profitable or push you below break-even by Year 3.

Sample Scenario Output

Four scenarios, one instant comparison

Here's what a typical scenario comparison looks like inside QuotationDeveloper for a machined aluminium bracket programme.

Baseline

Central assumptions — used as the reference point for all comparisons.

Contribution Margin
18.4%
NPV (5-Year)
$510K
Customer Target Price

What happens to margin if we meet the customer's target price exactly?

Contribution Margin
11.2%
NPV (5-Year)
$225K
Worst Case Stress

RM +15%, Volume −25%, Labour +8%, Freight +12%. Is the programme still viable?

Contribution Margin
4.8%
NPV (5-Year)
$39K
FX Downside

USD strengthens 8% — import material costs rise. What's the margin impact?

Contribution Margin
14.1%
NPV (5-Year)
$360K
Sample data only. Sign in to build scenarios on your own quotes →

The NPV Sensitivity Matrix — see all outcomes at once

The 7×7 NPV sensitivity grid shows how your programme's Net Present Value changes across 49 combinations of raw material price movement (columns: −15% to +15%) and volume change (rows: −30% to +30%).

Green cells = positive NPV. Amber = near break-even. Red = loss-making. Your base case is highlighted. This is the single fastest way to explain programme risk to your CFO or bank — one look shows how many scenarios are red.

See the NPV Matrix in the app
NPV Sensitivity Matrix (RM Price × Volume)
+45%
+40%
+35%
+30%
+25%
+20%
+15%
+35%
+30%
+25%
+20%
+15%
+10%
+5%
+25%
+20%
+15%
+10%
+5%
0%
-5%
+15%
+10%
+5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
+5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-45%
+NPV Break-even Loss Base

Full feature list — Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis

Unlimited scenarios per enquiry — no restriction
8 independent cost drivers: RM, Volume, Labour, Electricity, Freight, Scrap, Overhead, FX
Risk Premium % — simulates cost overrun without changing quoted price
Named scenario presets: Best Case, Conservative, Worst Case, Stress — one-click configure
Side-by-side comparison table — all scenarios vs baseline
Sensitivity Tornado chart — shows which driver has the most CM% impact
NPV Sensitivity Matrix — 7×7 grid: RM price × Volume combinations
Scenario tags: Customer, Internal, Bank, Management, Stress
Export comparison table as CSV for board presentations
Monte Carlo probability simulation — P5/P50/P95 confidence intervals
Annual Price Reduction (APR) modelling for multi-year contracts
Break-even analysis: units to recover tooling, years to break even

Stop quoting on hope. Start quoting on data.

Scenario modelling turns uncertain programmes into informed decisions. Know your worst case before your customer does.

Try Scenario Modelling Free